Thailand Edges Toward Exit From US Currency Monitoring List

Clearing the Thresholds

Thailand's central bank expects the country to drop off the US Treasury's Monitoring List when the next review is published between late 2026 and early 2027, according to Chayawadee Chai-anant, assistant governor for corporate relations at the Bank of Thailand. Speaking to reporters on Friday, she said the kingdom no longer meets the criteria that placed it under Washington's scrutiny.

The assessment will cover Thai economic data from July 2025 through June 2026. During that span, Thailand failed to trigger any of the three benchmarks the Treasury uses to flag potential currency manipulation: a bilateral trade surplus with the US of at least $15 billion, a current account surplus of at least 3 percent of GDP, and persistent one-sided foreign exchange intervention totaling at least 2 percent of GDP over eight months in a twelve-month window.

"If Thailand does not meet any of the criteria in the next assessment, it is expected to be removed from the Monitoring List," Chayawadee said.

Trade and Current Account Shift

Thailand posted a $12.1 billion trade deficit in the second quarter of 2026, following deficits of $2.6 billion in May and $2.7 billion in June, according to central bank data. The year-to-date trade deficit reached $12.4 billion. That marks a sharp reversal from the bilateral trade surplus with the US, which had climbed steadily in recent years to $54 billion over the four quarters through June 2025, more than double the level recorded five years earlier.

The current account also swung into deficit. Thailand logged a $17.1 billion current account shortfall in the second quarter, including deficits of $6.4 billion in May and $3.5 billion in June. The year-to-date current account deficit stood at $16.3 billion. In the July 2026 Treasury report, which covered the four quarters through June 2025, Thailand's current account surplus had registered 2.8 percent of GDP, below the 3 percent threshold but still elevated by historical standards.

The current account surplus had recovered gradually since the pandemic but has now fallen back as domestic demand picks up and import growth outpaces export gains.

No Intervention Pressure

Thailand met only the bilateral trade surplus criterion in the most recent US assessment. The Treasury noted that Thai authorities appeared to intervene in the foreign exchange market to smooth excessive volatility amid appreciation pressure on the baht during the reporting period, but the scale remained modest. The Bank of Thailand reported net foreign reserve purchases of $5 billion over the four quarters through June 2025, equivalent to roughly 0.9 percent of GDP, well under the 2 percent threshold.

Chayawadee stressed that the central bank does not intervene in baht management to gain a competitive exchange rate advantage. The baht was one of the strongest-performing currencies against the US dollar over the four quarters through June 2025, gaining 13.1 percent. The Treasury attributed that strength to Thailand's cyclical economic recovery and a monetary easing cycle in the second half of 2024.

Regional Context

The July 2026 report placed twenty economies on the Monitoring List based on the three criteria. Thailand remained on the list, which covers the four quarters through June 2025. The watchlist is separate from a formal designation of currency manipulation, which carries the threat of sanctions but has rarely been applied. Being on the monitoring list subjects a country to enhanced Treasury scrutiny and bilateral engagement but does not trigger penalties.

Thailand's expected removal reflects a broader rebalancing across Southeast Asia as post-pandemic trade patterns normalize and domestic consumption strengthens. With the next review cycle drawing on data through mid-2026, Bangkok's widening deficits should clear the path for an exit when the Treasury publishes its findings early next year.