Hanoi Speculators Face Losses as Apartment Prices Drop Up to 13 Percent

Trapped by Timing

Thuy Vy bought a one-bedroom apartment in Gia Lam for VND3 billion in late 2024, expecting to flip it when construction wrapped. The unit is finished, she has paid more than half, and VND1.35 billion comes due next month. For two months she has tried to sell at cost. No takers. She dropped the price by VND150 million. Inquiries remain scarce.

Across town, a 40-year-old buyer named Tuan is willing to sell his unit near Thang Long Boulevard for VND200 million below the VND4 billion he paid. He has settled roughly half and faces a VND2 billion balance in October when the nine-tower project begins handovers. Bank rates have climbed steadily since he signed.

Both are part of a wave of speculators who entered the market during the 2024-2025 price surge and now find themselves locked in positions they cannot exit.

The Handover Crunch

Many projects launched during the boom are entering the handover phase, triggering final payment obligations of around 45 percent of purchase price, according to the Vietnam Association of Realtors. Early buyers often received subsidized interest rates for a limited period. Those grace windows are closing, leaving owners exposed to floating rates that now range from 12 to 16 percent, data from Dat Xanh Services shows.

Asking prices have retreated from peak levels at several major developments. Imperia Sola Park listings are down 12.6 percent, Lumi Hanoi off 9.5 percent, and Kepler Land down 8.6 percent, according to historical data from online platform Batdongsan. Across multiple Hanoi neighborhoods, declines range from 8 to 13 percent.

Duc Trung, a broker focused on eastern Hanoi apartments, said the number of owners asking him to list their units jumped 20 to 30 percent in the second quarter compared with the start of the year. Most have abandoned the idea of profit and simply want out.

Supply Meets Caution

Pham Duc Toan, chief executive of EZ Property, said exit waves typically build in the months before handover, especially among highly leveraged buyers. But finding secondary buyers is difficult when units launched at VND80 million to above VND100 million per square meter require upfront commitments of several billion dong at a time when credit remains expensive.

Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, residential director at CBRE Vietnam, said recent transactions have been driven primarily by speculators rather than end users. He warned that as prices move further beyond affordability, the market risks entering a phase where sellers refuse to cut and buyers stay on the sidelines. He drew a parallel to the 2007-2011 cycle, when Vietnam's housing market boomed then nearly froze after credit tightened.

Cushman & Wakefield estimates more than 28,000 homes will be handed over in Hanoi from now through 2028. Dat Xanh Services pegs the absorption rate at only 20 to 30 percent of supply in the first six months of 2026, down from 50 to 60 percent in the second half of 2025.

Restructure or Sell at a Loss

Toan of EZ Property said most investors now facing payment pressure had relied on excessive leverage. He recommended restructuring mortgages and extending repayment terms rather than resorting to distressed sales, which lock in losses and add to downward price momentum.

The dynamic underscores a broader shift in Hanoi's residential market. What began as a speculative run fueled by low introductory rates and rising prices has reversed into a liquidity crunch, with owners racing to exit before final bills come due and buyers waiting for clearer signals that the floor has been reached.